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| Reliability analysis of surrounding rocks stability of underground water-sealed caverns |
| WEI Songyuan1, MA Jingyi2, PENG Zhenhua3, LIU Jianli1, LI Wei2
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1. Huizhou State Reserve Petroleum Base Co., Ltd., Huizhou 516347, Guangdong, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Intelligent Deep Metal Mining and Equipment(Northeastern University), Shenyang 110819, Liaoning, China;
3. CNOOC Petrochemical Engineering Co., Ltd., Qingdao 266101, Shandong, China |
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Abstract In order to evaluate the stability of an underground water-sealed cavern in Southern China, the cohesion, internal friction angle and elastic modulus were regarded as random variables, and a reliability analysis under the surrounding rock displacement failure mode was conducted. Considering the complexity of the overall structure of the project, multiple numerical simulations were performed using FLAC3D, and the performance function was fitted with the response surface method. The reliability index and failure probability were calculated using the FORM(first-order reliability method)method, and the influence of parameter correlations on the reliability analysis results was analyzed. The results showed that: significant surrounding rock displacements occurred at the intersections between caverns and the P2 fracture zone, between construction tunnels and main caverns, and between shafts and operation tunnels; Although the cavern surrounding rock exhibited good integrity, the post-excavation reliability index was 1.096(failure probability: 13.66%), which failed to meet general engineering requirements, necessitating timely support measures; The correlation between cohesion and internal friction angle showed no significant effect on the displacement-based reliability analysis results.
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Published: 18 June 2025
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