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| Research on quantitative analysis of tunnel face collapse risk in mountain highway tunnel |
| TIAN Tao1,2, TONG Yue1,3, LI Zeyu4, XU Jie4*, ZHOU Mingliang4, JIN Wentao1,5, HUANG Hongwei4
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1. Yunnan Xuanhui Expressway Co., Ltd., Qujing 654299, Yunnan, China;
2. Yunnan Yunling Expressway Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd., Kunming 650213, Yunnan, China;
3. Investment Co., Ltd., of Yunan Communications Investment &
Construction Group Co., Ltd., Kunming 650228, Yunnan, China;
4. Department of Geotechnical Engineering College of Civil Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China;
5. Yunnan Yunling Plateau Maintenance Engineering Co., Ltd., Kunming 650051, Yunnan, China |
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Abstract Addressing the current lack of risk loss quantification for specific tunnel collapse incidents at tunnel faces, a quantitative analysis of risk losses associated with tunnel face collapses in mountainous highway tunnels in Yunnan constructed using the drill-and-blast method was conducted. By establishing a risk quantification framework integrating occurrence probability and loss consequences, a quantitative calculation model covering personnel casualties, project delays, and economic losses was developed. Corresponding risk acceptance criteria were formulated based on the ALARP principle.The study focused on five high-risk processes: hazard clearance, mucking, steel arch installation, anchor rod placement and shotcrete application. Combining field survey data with the exceedance probability and loss magnitude of collapse risks at each process stage, quantitative analysis was performed using F-N curves for casualties, F-TD curves for schedule delays, and F-D curves for economic losses. Results indicated that personnel injury risk was significantly influenced by workers' spatiotemporal distribution, peaking during steel arch installation. Schedule delays in minor collapses were primarily driven by casualties and subsequent rectification, while major collapses were controlled by cleanup and repair workloads.Economic losses heavily depended on personnel compensation and indirect costs from schedule delays, often exceeding 70% of total losses in Southwest China, suggesting that even small-to-medium collapses may reach unacceptable risk thresholds.This study provides quantitative insights for risk assessment and management in mountain tunnel construction safety.
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Published: 07 July 2026
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