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| Risk margin model of underground engineering based on possibility theory |
| RONG Xiaoli1, WEN Zhu1*, HAO Yiqing2, LU Hao3, XIONG Ziming3
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1. School of Mechanical Engineering, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, Jiangsu, China;
2. The Rocket Army's Sergeant School of PLA, Qingzhou 262500, Shandong, China;
3. College of Defense Engineering, The Army Engineering University of PLA, Nanjing 210007, Jiangsu, China |
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Abstract Underground engineering has complicated environment and unforeseen factors, so there are generally high risks. The traditional risk assessment method was mainly based on the loss theory of probability theory, which had limitations in practical projects. The essence of risk assessment was quantitative analysis and evaluation of uncertainty. The risk assessment of water inrush in the construction of karst tunnels in underground engineering as an example, and a risk margin model was conducted based on the possibility theory. It was found that under the condition of lack of information and people's cognitive differences, the margin model under the possibility theory was more in line with the actual situation of the project, which could provide quantitative basis for the decision-making and management of the project.
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Received: 26 April 2018
Published: 29 July 2019
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