Abstract: Addressing the current lack of risk loss quantification for specific tunnel collapse incidents at tunnel faces, a quantitative analysis of risk losses associated with tunnel face collapses in mountainous highway tunnels in Yunnan constructed using the drill-and-blast method was conducted. By establishing a risk quantification framework integrating occurrence probability and loss consequences, a quantitative calculation model covering personnel casualties, project delays, and economic losses was developed. Corresponding risk acceptance criteria were formulated based on the ALARP principle.The study focused on five high-risk processes: hazard clearance, mucking, steel arch installation, anchor rod placement and shotcrete application. Combining field survey data with the exceedance probability and loss magnitude of collapse risks at each process stage, quantitative analysis was performed using F-N curves for casualties, F-TD curves for schedule delays, and F-D curves for economic losses. Results indicated that personnel injury risk was significantly influenced by workers' spatiotemporal distribution, peaking during steel arch installation. Schedule delays in minor collapses were primarily driven by casualties and subsequent rectification, while major collapses were controlled by cleanup and repair workloads.Economic losses heavily depended on personnel compensation and indirect costs from schedule delays, often exceeding 70% of total losses in Southwest China, suggesting that even small-to-medium collapses may reach unacceptable risk thresholds.This study provides quantitative insights for risk assessment and management in mountain tunnel construction safety.
田涛,仝跃,李泽豫,徐捷,周鸣亮,金文滔,黄宏伟. 山区公路隧道工作面坍塌事故风险定量分析研究[J]. 隧道与地下工程灾害防治, 2026, 8(2): 17-31.
TIAN Tao, TONG Yue, LI Zeyu, XU Jie, ZHOU Mingliang, JIN Wentao, HUANG Hongwei. Research on quantitative analysis of tunnel face collapse risk in mountain highway tunnel. Hazard Control in Tunnelling and Underground Engineering, 2026, 8(2): 17-31.
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